The Impact of Social Media on Brexit
Abstract
This paper explores the influence of social media on public opinion and voting behaviour during the Brexit campaign. It summarises the context of the campaign, poses a set of research questions based on involvement and activity on Facebook and Twitter, describes how the data collected from both platforms has been processed and finally, uses geographical and machine learning techniques to enrich and challenge news articles with different political perspectives. On 23rd June 2016, the UK held a referendum on its membership of the EU. The original vote took place in 1975, to legitimise the country’s membership after a narrow decision in parliament two years previously. Whilst this was a decisive campaign for the remain side, opinion on the EU had remained divided and nationalist rhetoric had lingered over the next four decades. In 2013, David Cameron pledged to hold a further referendum and once he had secured his unexpected majority in the general election, this took place nearly three years later. The EU has long been an issue of contention within the Conservative party and, despite reassurances from his EU partners, Cameron pursued talks on renegotiating the UK’s relationship with Europe. Cameron’s gamble tied his leadership with the referendum result but was part of a wider positioning of the Conservative party in the run up to the 2015 election. Throughout the campaign, however, he averted attention from the positive aspects of EU membership and his lacklustre approach to the debate would later be criticised. David Cameron’s government was in an extremely Eurosceptical majority but split on the dangers of leaving the EU. In 2014, this divide became more pronounced as the UK Independence Party (UKIP) burst into the mainstream, winning the European elections and by-elections in traditional Labour voting communities.
Reflecting this rise in anti-EU sentiment, the media increased its references to Eurosceptic themes and subsequent rise in anti-EU sentiment posed a major challenge for the Prime Minister. Despite this, the leave side was able to capitalise on the fact that it was a movement of convenience, gaining support from ideological and economic segments of British society through a cocktail of lies, disinformation, and a well-funded media machine. Therein, Vote Leave’s strategy was defined by untargeted mass advertising with misleading messages, specifically to older and predominantly white voters on Facebook (Gorrell et al., 2018). Subsequently, the remain campaign struggled to attract attention online and using traditional media was at a disadvantage as biased media awarded a disproportionate weight to negative economic forecasts, while the Leave campaign enjoyed a largely free and more engaging press. In the days prior to 23rd June, more positive messages intended to reassure and promote the continuity of the economy were drowned out by a ferocious debate on immigration and sovereignty in both social media and traditional press, benefiting disproportionately the leave campaign.
Keywords social media, Brexit, public opinion, voting behavior, EU referendum, misinformation, political campaigns, data analysis